MLCTF XXIV
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Brave -vs-
The Reliables
[2]  100%100%0%0%0%0%  [0]
mattdjoh @ Sunday, January 13h @ 20 CET
3CTF-Vaultcity-LE1022
0CTF-P4ce-LE101 2
0CTF-Azcanize-LE102 5
4CTF-Gataka-SE 3
3CTF-Ranel-JoltEdition4
All times in EST.
  Match Predictions

mattdjoh @ Thu Jan 10, 2013 6:50 pm     
Predicted Winner: BraveIntensity Factor:
VS

Projected Lineups:

d1sc Aiwon B4dzhootEr2 xiphias kyjol
Paetaulik lzr SMK Fiziek ymd/Marin


Brave and The Reliables were the European Conference's top two performers all season long, and both teams roll into the Finals feeling confident. d1sc and company were locked in a grueling contest with StD before od peaced out and tipped the scales in Brave's favor for the tiebreaker. A late season trade reaped dividends in the semifinals as kyjol and xiphias (traded for Soam and kev) both saw extensive playing time, filling in the holes on both sides of the map. Any team with d1sc and Aiwon together is going to be hard to beat, and with a solid supporting cast in place, Brave is poised to storm into the Championship Round as the team to beat.

The Reliables will have much to say about that before this match is over. After a regular season marked by 1-cap victores (all 5 maps they won were decided by 1 frag), they found their groove in the semifinals, outcapping DoB 11 to 1. I don't expect Brave's defense to be so porous, and lzr will find it much harder to get flags out this week. Paet and SMK continuing to provide steady support will be necessary, and I expect multiple flag standoffs in this match. Marin got the start in the semifinals over ymd, and I'm not sure if that was due to ymd being available or if it was just Paet's choice of lineup. Either way, having both of them available for the finals couldn't hurt.

As the Conference Finals are best of 5, each captain will be selecting two maps as their own. Paet picked p4ce in the semis, and it served them well to allow lzr to make the overwhelming majority of the grabs. I'd expect Paet to be thinking about p4ce, revenge, or bollwerk where the FC can grab quick and try to pick up support at mid. d1sc picked Infested and lost it in the semis, so he may go back to the drawing board for his map-picking strategy in the Finals. Larger, more defensive-oriented maps may be the way to go, and I wouldn't be surprised if we saw some Terra or Orbital in this match.

So who is going to win? Brave's the top seed, so the first map will be their choice. That means they just have to hold their own map picks to keep the pressure on the Reliables. I see the first three maps going to the team that picked them, but Brave rising up and stealing the fourth map (Paet's second map choice) in overtime.

djoh's prediction: Brave in 4.
Moderated By: MLCTF Admins

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