UT Capture the Flag VII
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Ya'll Niggas Poopy As Hell
-vs- team BOBO
[4]  44.4%44.4%44.4%44.4%55.6%55.6%55.6%55.6%  [5]
Thursday, May 5 @ 9:00pm
All times in EST.
  Match Predictions

Goten @ Thu May 05, 2005 6:51 am     
Predicted Winner: Ya'll Niggas Poopy As HellIntensity Factor:
Submitted by nexus

Sorry it took a while but I didn't have much time before this match is going to be played (tonight!) so here goes:

YNPAH probably made a mistake in round 1 of the playoffs when they chose Gauntlet against *HA* on many levels. For one, *HA* is arguably the second best Gauntlet team assembled this season and another map would have probably yielded a less scary result than giving Bretzky/Cooltown a fighting chance on their best map. More importantly however, YNPAH absolutely destroyed [BOBO] earlier this season on Gauntlet and could have probably coasted to another carefree win on their map pick ... if they hadn't 'wasted' Gauntlet on *HA*.

[BOBO] on the other hand still has several maps available to them that their team is exceptional on that cater to their strengths such as Lucius, Terra and Ranel. And as we all know earlier this season, [BOBO] pulled off one of the biggest upsets in MLUT history when they trounced YNPAH on Terra 5-1 at a time when YNPAH appeared invincible. The question is, are they confident enough to prove that it wasn't a fluke? Or will BOBO force the loyal UTV crowd to sit through a shitfest on Ancient or Almost?

Another important factor surrounding this match is the server selection. YNPAH is typically a Chicago team that feels pretty comfortable anywhere, whereas [BOBO] is absolutely a Texas force to be reckoned with. That said, [BOBO] will have to pick a map they feel they can win even with several 80-100 pingers on Durron's server choice; this is why I think they will throw Terra out the window and go with Ranel or Lucius. Another plus to this is that YNPAH's advantage of smarter, more experienced players will be limited on a fast, frag-happy map.

YNPAH knows that Imperium can't use a mic and that they have much better teamwork than [BOBO], and will certainly look to exploit that by choosing a map you can't win without cover and sealing such as Bollwerk, Glacier, or what I think they'll ultimately go with: Lava Giant. Durron is the single most dangerous runner on this map and is almost certain to hit mid every single grab he makes. The story here though will be Opti and Herbal eager to wash away the memories of a bitter Lava upset in last season's finals, and Goten/PINE/Pist should be able to seal where ACS could not.

Hedz will hit some nice cheese, Imperium will get near his base a few times but find himself lost in limbo when he spams a location bind and his team has to guess wtf "Red Lower Area" means exactly. As the map gets away from them NANM will start to push up and wonder where exactly he should be playing, then YNPAH should bust this open cleanly for an impressive win.

Off to Chicago for what I think will be a bitter and ugly contest on [BOBO]'s map choice no matter what it is. One of the qualities of a championship team is thinking you're unbeatable [on every map], having that 'swagger' we heard so much about from T.O. and the Philadelphia Eagles in that real sport we watch in the fall. [BOBO] is a dangerous team with a lot of players that are unknown quantities; you never know when Imperium or NANM will truly explode and become 2 Blackmanes (God help us all lol.) Since I had them pegged to take Lucius first round and they screwed me over, I'll just play it safe and predict every possible map they might pick, owned.

Lucius: Pist should be in for PINE but unless YNPAH makes a bold move and puts Herbal on O with Durron so he can't leave his position from D they are vulnerable in the same sense that Colt.45 would have been; playing too cautiously and waiting to get burned in OT. It's a balance; the longer you let [BOBO] "get away" with having 2 $600 or less players playing shutdown flag D on Lucius, the better the chances their all-stars will 'make a play.'

Ranel: This map is likely to get crazy unless both teams ignore mid and no one is able to seal. This is a dream map for Imperium and Hedz to run like hell, frag and disappear on, and despite the awesome fragging of Goten and Herbal they should get out a lot. Hedz is a magician here and will never give up. On the other end things could be a bit more frustrating for Opti and Durron if NANM's ping is alright and Jugg actually shows up; shock camping is one of Thriller's strengths and Opti may get discouraged here after getting triple-teamed several times. Unless Herbal pushes up here or Goten plays O instead of Opti I think [BOBO] will control the tempo of this map and wind up with the upset to send it to Orbital.

Terra: This will be an exciting game if its played and I expect YNPAH to play drastically different than their earlier meeting this season. Look for a surprise like Durron on D and Goten on O to shake things up a bit. This map could go the exact opposite it went last time; with a strong showing from Goten on O and Pist playing like he should at front door while herbal/durron fight over who gets to pulse or headshot Imperium/Hedz first. If PINE plays look for Herbal to take the armor-whoring front door duties as his ability to cover mid is second-to-none on this map, and in the end the teamwork of YNPAH will be too much for lightning to strike twice for [BOBO].

Almost: Not even deserving of a prediction. This map is so gay I will tell YNPAH exactly how to play this to shut down BOBO if this terrible map is chosen. Opti/Durron O will be plenty because there are so many exits here, Goten flag D/front door low/mid by the minigun, Herbal standing in the high entrance to push up and seal high from being entered or exited, and their fifth on the flag should be fine. BOBO will put himself on D here to show his CML skills aren't for nothing, but they are; and durron will run through him like crap through a goose ;)

Ancient: You are gay if you pick this map.

Final Prediction

Lava Giant: 4-0 YNPAH Teamwork, cheese and powerups will decide this map; YNPAH has the advantage of all 3.

Lucius/Ranel: 2-1 [BOBO] Durron hasn't shown enough activity this season to merit a prediction that he's going to work his magic and break out a dozen times on any D, let alone NANM and 2 pretty solid shock campers; and with the stand-still combos in their favor [BOBO] should be able to pull the upset.

If Terra is picked instead: 2-0 YNPAH Back in his /. days Durron was a demon on defense, and despite his rust can still break out the rifle and smarts to hold a flag longer than just about anyone else. Herbal will have more fun defending with his friend, and Goten's fragging will be too much for Thriller/BOBO/Jugg to stop forever.

Oh, and just in case...

Orbital: 3-1 YNPAH I can't envision a scenario where [BOBO] wins this map on a Chicago server unless JuGG shows up and has the game of his life; and he'll probably do neither. Durron is legendary on this map, but his best bet would be to put Opti on low D and let Goten take a lot of the fragging load off; I ran with Goten the other day and he destroyed everyone, leaving me to hop away like a newb.

Herbal is incredible D here and should rise to the challenge of stopping Imperium, who will be looking over his shoulder for Hedz who will probably be telefragged or getting shock spammed by Pine or Pist as this isn't one of his (Hedz's) best maps. 3-1 is my prediction, I think if Opti/Durron are O it will be a methodical game with lots of tension and growing excitement and end up 2-1 or so, maybe even in OT, but if Goten is on O with Durron both flags should move a bit more and [BOBO] won't be able to keep pace, 3-1 YNPAH, and the 1 was being generous. You never know though, NANM thinks I miss a lot on this map, maybe he won't.
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